An official website of the United States government

Here's how you know

Official websites use .mil

A .mil website belongs to an official U.S. Department of Defense organization in the United States.

Secure .mil websites use HTTPS

A lock () or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .mil website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Threatcasting

Bringing together diverse expertise to identify future threats, explore their implications, and develop actions to disrupt them before they emerge.

FEATURED VIDEO

Introduction to Threatcasting

What is Threatcasting?

The Threatcasting Method brings together a diverse and interdisciplinary collection of people and organizations to model possible future threats and identify actions that can be taken today to disrupt them.

Threatcasting fosters dialogue across military, industry, academia, policy, law enforcement, and other communities while producing a wide range of deliverables including reports, briefings, articles, podcasts, videos, and science fiction narratives.

Threatcasting Workbook

Download the fillable workbook and conduct your own Threatcasting event.

Download Workbook

Threatcasting Publications

Explore Threatcasting reports, articles, and research publications examining emerging threats, future operating environments, and disruptive technologies.

Microtargeting Unmasked

Microtargeting Unmasked: Safeguarding Law Enforcement, the Military, and the Nation in the Era of Personalized Threats

View Publication

6G Systems

6G Systems and the Future of Multidimensional Attack Planes

View Publication

Cyber Enabled Financial Crime

The Future of Cyber Enabled Financial Crime

View Publication

Cyber Competition

Cyber Competition in the Indo-Pacific Gray Zone 2035

View Publication

Weaponized Harmony

Powerful Narratives: Weaponized Harmony and the Soft Power Tools of China's Rise

View Publication

Phalanx

View Publication

Inside Enemy

The Inside Enemy: Weaponisation of your Logistical Footprint

View Publication

Threatcasting Framework

Threatcasting: A Framework and Process to Model Future Operating Environments

View Publication

Digital Weapons

Digital Weapons of Mass Destabilization

View Publication

Emerging Disruptive Technologies and WMDs

Future Implications of Emerging Disruptive Technologies on Weapons of Mass Destruction

View Publication

Information Warfare

Information Warfare and the Future of Conflict

View Publication

A Widening Attack Plain

A Widening Attack Plain

View Publication

Weaponized Artificial Intelligence

The Future of Weaponized Artificial Intelligence

View Publication

Envisioning the Future to Empower Action

Envisioning the Future to Empower Action

View Publication

Science Fiction Prototypes

Threatcasting uses narrative-based futures and science fiction prototyping to explore emerging threats, technologies, and societal change. These stories help decision-makers visualize potential futures and identify actions that can be taken today to disrupt future threats.

Hidden Stratagem

Hidden Stratagem: Microtargeting – The Future of Conflict

The story you are about to read is about microtargeting. It does not shy away from a dystopian vision of tomorrow. The threat from microtargeting isn't a massive open wound. Instead, it's death by a thousand cuts from an unseen knife.

The Great Attack

The Great Attack: Survivors' Tales

This is the story of the Great Attack. Where various emerging disruptive technologies (sometimes working together and sometimes singularly) were paired with traditional kinetic weapons in an attempt to create effects similar to weapons of mass destruction.

Material Loss

As it has throughout history, technology capable of improving lives can also be used to inflict harm. In this future, nefarious actors leverage emerging technologies to disrupt the global order.

Invisible Force

Invisible Force: Information Warfare and the Future of Conflict

The year is 2030. Large swaths of the world are destabilized. Famine, migration, conflict, and information warfare shape the global environment as nations and non-state actors compete for influence and control.

Dark Hammer

Dark Hammer: A Retrospective of Science Fiction Prototyping

Graphic novellas have a rich tradition within the U.S. Army. This story explores how science fiction prototyping can help communicate future threats and strategic challenges through narrative storytelling.

Insider Threat

A concerned servicemember observes increasingly suspicious behavior from a colleague. Over the course of a year, warning signs point toward a potential insider threat capable of compromising a critical Army installation.

Quantum Winter

Adversaries achieve a quantum computing breakthrough years ahead of expectations. The resulting imbalance in computational power dramatically alters the strategic environment and places U.S. forces at a disadvantage.

1000 Cuts

A foreign criminal organization exploits vulnerabilities in Internet of Things devices and online services, creating widespread disruption and demonstrating how interconnected technologies can become weapons against society.

Hero 2028

Amid chemical attacks and global conflict, a rumored summit is about to convene in a secret location. A terror cell has infiltrated the gathering and an attack appears imminent.

Silent Ruin

The year is 2027. Rising geopolitical tensions place NATO and its adversaries on the brink of confrontation as military exercises and cyber operations unfold along contested borders.

Dark Hammer

Set in 2027, this science fiction prototype explores conflict on the Han Chiu Peninsula and examines how emerging technologies influence military operations and strategic decision-making.

11-25-2027

A seemingly harmless social media post during a holiday weekend exposes operational information and sets in motion a sophisticated attack against military logistics.

Engineering a Traitor

Engineering a Traitor

CPT Jake Roberts always wanted to serve his country. This narrative explores how personal, social, and technological pressures can combine to create insider threats.

The Future of Work

The Future of Work

For decades, society has imagined the future through science fiction. This narrative explores how emerging technologies may reshape employment, organizations, and the nature of work itself.

Cisco Two Days After Tuesday

Cisco Two Days After Tuesday

Cisco Hyperinnovation Living Labs explores how organizations can imagine, prepare for, and shape future challenges through collaborative innovation and strategic foresight.

Media & Coverage

RADIO INTERVIEW

Oregon Public Broadcasting

Futurist Predicts Cyber Threats →

ARMY NEWS

U.S. Army Press Release

Threatcasting Report and Lab Series →

INDUSTRY ARTICLE

IT Business Edge

Threatcasting 2026 →

PODCAST

Forbes

Hacking the Real World →

INDUSTRY ARTICLE

Datamation

Threatcasting Corporate Strategy →

Featured Presentations

KEYNOTE PRESENTATION

Chicago Ideas Week: Lt. Col. Natalie Vanatta Discusses Threatcasting

CONFERENCE PRESENTATION

ShmooCon 2017

CONFERENCE PRESENTATION

CyCON 2016