The Intelligence Costs of Underestimating Russia: A Warning from History

Thwarting the social instabilities and political divisions created by bots and other manipulators of information requires creative countermeasures, including aesthetic ones. This belief describes the gameplan of the Department of Homeland Security, which is betting that aesthetics can help safeguard a democracy that has come to seem increasingly fragile.

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WEST POINT, N.Y. – Cadets at the U.S. Military Academy are learning the importance of Army space from the Space and Missile Defense’s Space and High-Altitude Research Center.

Lt. Col. Craig Boucher, director of the SMDC Space and High-Altitude Research Center at West Point, said the center’s mission is to provide space and multi-domain operations education and training and provide operationally relevant space- and missile defense-related research projects for cadets. The center’s role is multi-faceted, but they focus on developing space-aware and space-smart leaders for the Army and the Army’s contribution to the joint force.

“Beyond that the vision is to inspire the next generation of Army leaders to pursue careers in space and missile defense,” he said. “On the training and education side of things we provide the space and multi-domain expertise along with the Army Cyber Institute to raise awareness across the corps of cadets on how space enables their tactical actions on the battlefield and reinforce why things like basic land navigation skills are so important when GPS is denied by an adversarial force.”

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RICHMOND, Va. – Approximately 20 Virginia National Guard Soldiers and Airmen took part in the Cyber Fortress exercise with public and private sector partners Sept. 21-30.

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When, in an expansionist mood, Russia embarked on an ill-judged war of territorial conquest against its neighbor, it did so with a grandiose sense of its conquering power. Russia’s leader, who ruled nearly as an absolute monarch and held his counterpart next door in contempt, believed that his country’s interests were threatened, that Russia deserved more influence and respect. He had envisioned a scenario in which his enemy would yield quickly in the face of overwhelming odds and accede to Russian territorial demands.

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Russia’s war in Ukraine, now nearing its 10-week mark, has been devastating, killing thousands of civilians and forcing millions to flee their homes. Thus far, this devastation has been wrought primarily by conventional military means, without Moscow launching the “full-scale cyber assault” or “cybergeddon-scale attacks” feared early on. As various authors have pointed out, “Ukrainian air defense and aircraft didn’t appear to be affected by cyber disruptions, and there are no reports of critical infrastructure damage from cyberattacks”; “Ukraine’s electricity grid, its communications systems and other infrastructure are still largely up. Its president is streaming from his government office.” Why?

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During a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing in March, Senator Angus King, an independent from Maine, pressed General Paul Nakasone, the head of U.S. Cyber Command and director of the National Security Agency, about the lack of significant cyber-operations in Russia’s war in Ukraine. After all, Russia has long been known for targeting Western countries, as well as Ukraine itself, with cyberattacks. Echoing the surprise of many Western observers, King said, “I expected to see the grid go down, communications too, and that hasn’t happened.” Indeed, although President Joe Biden and members of his administration have also warned of potential Russian cyberattacks against the United States, there were remarkably few signs of such activity during the first six weeks of the war.

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The danger is that America’s over-correction of its earlier stand on future threats may significantly undermine its capability to deal with the present global security scenario. Most 21st century conflicts are still being fought with conventional if advanced precision weapons by troops on the ground. Washington would do well to remember that.

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With the White House warning of Russian cyber attacks, senior U.S. cyber leaders could soon be forced to make critical and unprecedented decisions in this battlespace. Now more than ever, the Department of Defense needs specifically trained senior officers who have both the technical and strategic education to confront this challenge. The department is currently focused on developing technically skilled people in the junior uniformed and civilian ranks. This, however, is insufficient.

In order to prepare a new generation of senior cyber leaders, the service war colleges should begin by implementing a “Cyberspace Strategic Studies” track. Although their student bodies vary, these colleges share similar goals: improving the professional education of the highest levels of military leadership and applying the lessons learned during war. This makes the war colleges ideally suited to prepare our future cyber generals and senior civilian leaders.

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The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has perplexed observers expecting to see the cyber dimension unfold differently. When Russia began to mass troops along Ukraine’s borders, analysts predicted that cyber operations would be critical to Putin’s military strategy.

One headline offered that the Russian invasion could “redefine cyberwarfare.” Former White House cyber expert Jason Healey hypothesized that “it will be the first time a state with real capabilities is willing to take risks and put it all on the line.”

Despite these predictions, the expected “shock and awe” Russian cyber campaign in preparation of the invasion of Ukraine never emerged. Moreover, while the conflict will undoubtedly evolve, cyber operations don’t appear to be playing a decisive role on the battlefield.

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CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCBD) – The commanding general for U.S. Army Cyber Command (ARCYBER) will speak at a conference focusing on cyber resiliency for critical infrastructure, which is scheduled to take place February 24-25 at The Citadel.

Lt. General Stephen G. Fogarty will deliver a keynote address at the Jack Voltaic Cyber Conference.

The project was developed by the Army Cyber Institute to analyze weaknesses in critical infrastructure through "an innovative, bottom-up approach… focusing on cities and municipalities where critical infrastructure and populations are substantial."

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The Army Cyber Institute is turning to an unusual source to help leaders anticipate future threats: graphic novels. Three graphic novels based on research into information warfare and weapons of mass destruction are intended to “generate conversation within the Army, NATO and the broader community about the future threats in the environment and today’s actions to prepare for those threats,” according to a Jan. 24 notice ...

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WASHINGTON: It’s not unusual for the military to seek out specialized contractors with a unique set of skills. But a new solicitation has the Army looking for someone with a more artistic bent — someone who can take technical information about the service’s cyber and weapons of mass destruction strategies and turn them into comic books.

According to a SAM.gov notice, the Army Cyber Institute wants to use science-fiction prototyping (SFP) — science-fiction stories, graphic novels/comics, movies and animations to explore the implications of futuristic technologies — to support the service’s and NATO’s research about future operating environments.

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This fascination with the future extends to the U.S. Department of Defense, which has been seeking science fiction writers to help predict the nature of tomorrow’s conflicts. Calls for proposals have asked consultants to imagine how artificial intelligence (AI) will “change how decisions are made on the battlefield.” NATO recently published a set of short stories on the future of warfare in 2036, and the Army Cyber Institute commissioned an “Invisible Force” graphic novel to explore the role of cyberattacks in a 2030 conflict scenario.

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" U.S., European and Russian negotiators are meeting this week to discuss the security crisis over Ukraine, and the steady buildup of Russian troops along the Ukraine border. The United States and its European allies have threatened to impose additional sanctions on Russia if President Vladimir Putin invades its neighbor."

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Though some may see data privacy as a purely consumer issue, data in the hands of malicious actors and foreign adversaries who seek to exploit Americans’ personal information can present cybersecurity and national security risks. Key strategy documents like the 2023 National Cybersecurity Strategy and Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community illuminate the need to safeguard our data. They highlight how adversaries can use this data against us—whether collected through commercial data aggregation or cyber breaches, which can increase the success of their espionage, influence, kinetic and cyberattack operations, or disinformation campaigns.

Join the R Street Institute for a special virtual event exploring the nexus between data privacy and security. Panelists will explore threats and risks; responsible and practical approaches to protect Americans’ data while allowing responsible use; and possible paths forward, such as a federal comprehensive data privacy and security law and other legislative and non-legislative options.